PCB Q4 is not short in off-season

Stock accelerates shipments, PCB Q4 is not short in off-season

December 20, 2019

Printed circuit boards are at their peak in the third quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to be more conservative in the fourth quarter due to long-term and short-term material interference, China’s power curtailment and the off-season of some consumer electronics. There is no significant gap in customer pull power, and performance this season is expected to be better than expected. Manufacturers will perform well in demand and crop power i.n the Chinese New Year next year.

The cooling of consumer products is not as severe as expected

Originally from September to October, the market expected to become conservative on some electronic products, including NB, panels and non-Apple mobile phones. In addition, the fourth quarter was originally a traditional off-season, so the market originally had a more neutral view of related application vendors. However, it seems that although the Chromebook market is in decline in the NB market, the demand for commercial and gaming notebooks is still good. Manufacturer HannStar said that it is relatively smooth for customers to pull out the goods from previous inventory. Although QoQ will decline in the fourth quarter, the rate will not be high. Large, the legal person is estimated to be about 5% to 6%. Even if the base number in the first quarter of this year is high, the performance of YoY will be flat in the first quarter of next year.

Zhichao, the world's largest photovoltaic panel manufacturer, returned to growth in November after a two-month decline in revenue in September and October.

Keep away from the curtailment factor

At the end of September, there was no warning for power cuts in China. Originally, PCB companies with production bases in China had a more uncertain view of the power supply situation in the fourth quarter. They were worried that power cuts would become the norm and would slightly disrupt production scheduling, so they believed that the fourth quarter Operational challenges are greater, but after mid-October, there is almost unlimited electrical interference, and overall production is back on track.

Taiwan County said that November revenue hit a new single-month high. At present, it seems that December can maintain the November high, and after the power curtailment, logistics and other unfavorable factors are lessened, the peak season for new machine demand is delayed, and the overall crop power remains full. The load can reach before the lunar new year, which means that the peak season effect will be maintained in January next year.

Inventory speeds up shipment

Supporting Q4 operations in the off-season, the main reason is that the customer's long and short material problems are alleviated. The previously suppressed goods can speed up the shipment. Many PCB manufacturers have increased their inventory at the end of the third quarter, that is, due to the shortage of customers in the supply chain. Therefore, the temporary delay of shipments to PCB factories caused high inventory, but after the material conditions turned smooth, PCB factories began to stock up.

Tripod said that the previous customers had been relieved by not shipping due to the long and short material jams, and began to ship slowly. The fourth quarter was about the same as the third quarter, which is equivalent to maintaining a new single-season high. It should not be light.

Zhending-KY also said that the overall power rationing haze in China has disappeared, and the situation of long and short materials has eased, and downstream module factories and EMS customers have turned smoothly. At present, it seems that there is still a chance to go up again in December, the peak season effect.